70% of Farmers Can't Afford All Needed Fertilizer

By: Ryan Hanrahan, University of Illinois' FarmDoc project - 04/16/2026

A new survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation shows that the vast majority of U.S. farmers -- roughly 70% -- are unable to afford all of the fertilizer they need this season amid rising input costs due to the war in Iran and an already difficult farm economy. The survey was conducted from April 3 to April 11 and had more than 5,700 farmers respond.

The American Farm Bureau Federation's Faith Parum reported that "farmers in the Southern region reported the greatest difficulty securing fertilizer, with 78% unable to afford all needed inputs this season. Producers in the Northeast and West also reported significant challenges, with 69% and 66%, respectively, unable to afford all required fertilizer, compared to 48% in the Midwest."

"When producers cannot afford full fertilizer application rates, they may reduce nutrient use or shift acreage decisions, both of which increase the risk of lower yields and reduced production potential in the 2026 crop year," Parum reported. "Affordability concerns are even more pronounced when viewed by commodity. More than 80% of rice, cotton and peanut producers reported they cannot afford all required fertilizer, highlighting the vulnerability of these production systems to input cost shocks. Over half of all commodities report not being able to afford all fertilizer needs this year."

Progressive Farmer's Russ Quinn reported that "Faith Parum, economist at AFBF, said in a Zoom call with reporters Tuesday morning, there has been a lot of discussion about how much fertilizer farmers preordered before the war with Iran. In the AFBF survey, there were large differences between regions and even among crops grown by farmers who had already bought fertilizer. Midwest corn and soybean producers preordered fertilizer at higher rates than Southern farmers who grew cotton and rice."

"In the Midwest region, 67% of the respondents said they had already bought fertilizer. Even with higher prebooking rates, nearly one in three Midwestern farmers still reported entering the season without securing all their fertilizer needs," Quinn reported. "Producers in other regions are more likely to purchase fertilizer closer to application. Nineteen percent of Southern farmers prebooked fertilizer for their crop this year, western farmers responded with 31% and the Northeast region saw 30% of respondents having already bought nutrients."

Agri-Pulse's Oliver Ward reported that "even if the latest U.S. ceasefire with Iran holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens in short order, damage to fertilizer infrastructure in the region will keep prices elevated through 2027 and into 2028, a new analysis finds, as U.S. agriculture braces for long-term supply challenges."

The analysis from the NDSU team says that "under our central scenario, 'Contested Transit,' in which the ceasefire holds but the Strait only partially reopens under contested conditions, urea is projected to peak at $784 per short ton (st) (+67%) in July 2026, and DAP is projected to peak at $866/st (+39%) in October."

"Under the 'Extended Conflict' scenario, in which the ceasefire collapses, and the Strait remains closed through fall 2026, urea reaches $996/st (+112%) in October, and DAP reaches $945/st (+52%) in November," the NDSU team reports. "Even under the 'Quick Reopening' scenario, in which both sides fully cooperate and the Strait is functionally operational by July, urea is projected to peak at $782/st (+66%), well above the pre?crisis $470 but below 2022 record prices."

Ward reported that "reports suggest extensive damage to Iran's South Pars petrochemical complex and the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas infrastructure that serves Qatari fertilizer makers, taking urea production offline. '[I]f this damage assessment is accurate, the pre-crisis pricing environment is unlikely to return before 2028,' the authors note."

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